2024 MA Enrollment Trends & What They Mean for This AEP

The Medicare Advantage (MA) market has experienced remarkable growth in recent years, with more seniors opting for the alternative to traditional Medicare. In 2024, enrollment trends continued to show substantial numbers, albeit slower than in previous years.

According to a March report from Chartis, MA enrollment likely peaked in 2020, with a significant increase of 1.5 million new Medicare enrollees compared to only 1.3 million new enrollees this past year. While MA remains a popular choice for seniors, the enrollment growth rate has tempered since 2020, indicating a potential shift in the pace of growth.

Agents must understand these current trends as they prepare for the 2024/2025 MA Annual Enrollment Period (AEP). Let’s dive into the data and explore what it means for the future of MA.

Enrollment trends in 2024

MA plans have become increasingly popular, with about half of Medicare-eligible individuals enrolled. According to the Chartis report, the market has grown by 1.7 million beneficiaries since 2023, reaching a total enrollment of 33 million individuals. This represents a 5.4% increase over the previous year.

Special Needs Plans (SNPs) have experienced substantial growth, adding 1.2 million members in 2024—representing a 21.5% increase from the previous year. Nearly seven in 10 new MA enrollees opted for SNPs, with Chronic Condition SNPs (C-SNPs) leading the way. The increasing popularity of SNPs highlights the importance of catering to the unique needs of specific populations within the MA sector and presents a significant growth opportunity for health plans.

While the number of plan options remained relatively flat in 2024, with the average senior having access to 44 plans, the exponential growth trend in plan options observed in previous years has slowed down. Preferred Provider Organizations (PPOs) have seen an increase, constituting 43% of all plans offered, up from 31% in 2019.

As shown in the Chartis report, MA enrollment can be closely related to social vulnerability, with counties with higher vulnerability scores showing greater penetration rates. Quality ratings, however, have been a concern, as plans need help maintaining their average star ratings. About a quarter of beneficiaries are enrolled in plans with less than four stars, which could indicate a decline in quality performance in 2024.

Future market outlook and dynamics

Despite the challenges the MA market faces, plan executives remain optimistic about the future. A Chartis survey of industry leaders revealed that 84% expect their plan’s membership growth to be consistent or higher over the next year. While concerns about overall profitability, medical cost growth, and star quality reductions persist, the outlook for MA remains positive.

These trends will affect the upcoming 2024/2025 Medicare selling season. As the Annual Enrollment Period nears, and with the growth in MA enrollment slowing down, the competition among health plans during AEP may intensify. We’ll all need to carefully evaluate our strategies to attract and retain beneficiaries in a market that is becoming more saturated.

"Focusing on member engagement, offering innovative plan options, and emphasizing the unique benefits of MA over traditional Medicare will be essential for success during this year’s AEP."

Overall, 2024 MA enrollment trends provide valuable insights into the market’s current state and future trajectory. While growth has slowed since 2020, MA remains a preferred choice among Medicare-eligible beneficiaries. The increasing popularity of SNPs and the plateauing of plan options highlight the need for healthcare professionals to focus on sustainable growth, member engagement, and diversification strategies. As the MA market evolves, stakeholders must adapt strategies to navigate an increasingly complex and competitive landscape.

Takeaways

According to a recent report from Chartis, Medicare Advantage enrollment continues to grow despite mounting obstacles, with half of Medicare-eligible individuals now opting for these plans.

The report also demonstrated that Special Needs Plans (SNPs) are experiencing significant growth, particularly in the Chronic Condition SNPs (C-SNPs) segment.

Plan options have plateaued, and quality ratings remain a concern, emphasizing the need for sustainable growth strategies and member engagement efforts.

AEP Resources

We are excited for the 2025 Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) and the incredible opportunities it brings! At PSM Brokerage, we are dedicated to helping our agents succeed, stay productive, and remain compliant throughout this crucial time. Our comprehensive support includes up-to-date training, valuable resources, and expert guidance to navigate the complexities of the AEP.

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